The Tories will re-brand image and 'message' from now till election time. The image will be one very much along the lines of Boris in the mayoral election. It goes something like this: everyone knows that the image of the Tories is one of traditionally old money stuffed shirts, with accents that make them sound like they are eating broken glass. Python got them down pat in the old 'Upper Class Twit of the Year' competition. Even their northern leaders sounded priggish (Hague, anyone?) But shaggy dog Boris, while an obvious 'old boy' type, won people over with his buffoonish charm...and most importantly...he wasn't a tired old incumbent.
The Brits are in the fortunate position of being able to recognise a group of people who know how to campaign on 'change' and be disappointed. The western world's best example of the new style of campaign was Tony Blair in 1997...he and his Oxbridge buddies refined the art of tight, 'on message', good looking, good suits, 'hope & change' campaigning that won Bill Clinton power in 1992. Kevin Rudd did the same thing in Australia last year.
The main (and common to all the above campaigns) ingredient for this kind of success is: a tired, long-serving incumbent.
I think the Tories will win and win handsomely in 2010, but they have to watch for smaller parties like the L-Ds and especially the BNP, who've also diluted their core philosophies and dressed up in a suit to appear legitimate.
The time for potential Tory voters to really pay attention is about 4-6 weeks out, when you start seeing policy detail. if you see almost mirrored Labour policies, watch out. It's a sure sign they're nicking stuff and just changing it enough to make it appear as their own. If you see radically different policies that cost lots of money...alarm bells should sound. They are supposed to be conservative, especially fiscally. Do not trust a spendthrift conservative, 'cause...well, there's no such thing.
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